Geopolitical analysis of the Middle East conflict – USA, Iran and Israel.

Analysis of the Middle East conflict

In late February-early March 2026, the United States together with Israel launched a coordinated military offensive against Iran, including attacks on military infrastructure and the beheading of the country.

In response, Iran has launched missiles and drones against US bases and allies in the region(Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Israel…), escalating the conflict into an open crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategic nodes of the world energy trade.

This episode is being interpreted by markets and governments as an escalation with the potential to become a more far-reaching conflict in the Middle East, with profound global economic implications.

Immediate Impact on Trade and Energy Routes

Strait of Hormuz Disruption

The Strait of Hormuz is the maritime corridor through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied gas (LNG) transits. The violence and warning from Iranian forces has led to a drastic decline in shipping traffic, with a number of vessels opting to stop and dock at nearby safe ports or reroute via longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. This disruption directly affects the transport of all commodities dependent on the Persian Gulf.

Logistical consequences:

1. Increased transit times (extra days or weeks if the Strait of Hormuz is avoided).
2. Uncertainty for importers and exporters in Spain.
3. Increased fuel costs for shipping companies.
4. Increased risk premiums and cancellation of war-risk insurance for ships crossing the zone.

Maritime transportation and increased costs

Freight costs

With the suspension or reduction of transit through Hormuz and the increased risk in the region, the major shipping lines have begun to implement:

1. Conflict surcharges (surcharges per container)
2. Increases in marine insurance premiums.
3. Longer and more expensive alternative routes (through South Africa)

This translates into visible increases in container and bulk freight rates, which are already being passed on to spot and long-term contracts.

Energy prices

Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen sharply, reaching peaks well above pre-conflict levels, due to the perceived supply risk and the partial shutdown of energy traffic through Hormuz.

Impact of the Middle East conflict on Spanish trade.

Exporting and importing companies

• Importers: Companies that rely on raw materials or components arriving via implied shipping routes could see higher unit costs, especially if their products or inputs come from Asia or the Gulf.

  Sectors such as agrochemicals, automotive and technology manufacturing are particularly sensitive to logistics costs.

• Exporters: Spanish exports may become less competitive in markets outside the EU if transport and insurance prices remain high.

  Companies with FOB contracts, where the buyer assumes transportation costs, will suffer less than those with DDP or CIF conditions absorbed by the seller.

Energy and inflation

Spain, like the EU, depends on energy imports. The rise in oil and gas prices can translate into:

1. Upward pressure on industrial and inland transportation costs.
2. Increase in final consumer prices.
3. More widespread inflation, complicating the European Central Bank’s monetary policies.

Rates, risks and economic projections

Tariffs and trade policy changes

Although geopolitical conflicts do not usually lead immediately to higher tariffs, they can:

1. Catalyze supply chain reviews.
2. Encourage alternative trade agreements to reduce dependence on conflictive markets.
3. Reinforce preferences for nearby or regional production.

For Spain and the EU, this can accelerate decisions on energy security and trade diversification, not only in tariffs but also in logistics agreements.

Risks to consider

1. Persistence of the limitation of access to the Strait of Hormuz: it could push Brent above 100 USD/barrel if it lasted for weeks.
2. Inflation and global economic slowdown: higher energy and transportation prices may slow growth, especially in economies dependent on energy imports.
3. Fragmented supply chains: lengthy route diversions make logistics operations more expensive and reduce efficiency.

Short- and medium-term forecasts

• Base (likely) scenario: The Hormuz Strait remains partially closed and insecure for weeks, causing freight and marine insurance prices, along with oil and gas prices to rise, with spikes in volatility according to the progress of negotiations between the U.S. and the new Iranian administration.

• Alternative (worse) scenario: Conflict spreads to other maritime zones (e.g. attacks on Suez or the Red Sea), leading to a wider reconfiguration of global routes and persistent energy inflation.

• Optimistic scenario: De-escalation after international mediation and partial reestablishment of routes, reducing pressure on markets in a matter of months (after the rise in freight, insurance, oil and gas prices, a gradual reduction will be seen until returning to normal figures, although higher than before the military operation).

Effects on financial markets and exchange rates

Euro/ Dollar

Geopolitical uncertainty and heightened risk aversion have boosted the dollar as a safe-haven asset, pushing the EUR/USD cross lower. In recent days, the euro has retreated against the dollar to levels not seen in weeks, reflecting the flow into safe-haven assets.

Stock markets

The main European indices (including the IBEX 35) closed with sharp declines after the announcement of US intentions and the mobilization of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier to Israeli waters. Meanwhile, defensive sectors such as energy and safe-haven securities, such as gold and bonds, recorded gains.

Global volatility remains elevated, with widespread selling in equities and increased risk aversion.

Conclusion

Geopolitical tensions in the region, already affecting world trade, the global supply chain and energy and maritime routes, reflecting especially in:

1. Higher oil and gas prices.
2. Higher transportation and marine insurance costs.
3. Mixed sectoral impacts for Spanish companies according to their role in the global chain
4. Pressure on the euro and strengthening of the dollar.

The current situation is not an isolated episode, but a turning point in international trade.

Companies that are late to react will face logistics cost overruns, cash flow tensions and loss of competitiveness. Those that anticipate scenarios will be able to protect margins and gain market share while others improvise.

From Vicasso we can help your companies to:

• Contact us at at a time of geopolitical tension to save freight costs and FOB expenses.
• Simulate ocean (FCL/LCL), air and road transportation cost scenarios.
• Redesign logistics and sourcing strategies in the face of possible shutdowns or prolonged increases in prices to minimize country risk.

In an environment where oil can soar, freight rates can double and the dollar can strengthen rapidly, the difference between protecting margin or losing it is in the planning.

If your company imports, exports or depends on international raw materials, this is the time to review your strategy, now is the time to review your strategy.